By: Mayerlyn Rivera and Beata Tewell

Upcoming

Georgia 

On Oct. 26, Georgian citizens will take to the polls to vote in the parliamentary elections. Many fear the outcome at the end of this week with the participation of the Georgian Dream (GD) party and recent behavior. As of recently, the GD party has advocated for a “foreign agent” law that will allow non-governmental organizations to have power- instilling a fear for a loss of democracy in the state. The current prime minister, Irakli Kobakhidz, was appointed by parliament in February, a very criticized decision by the public, and announced that if the GD party won he would ban any opposing parties from running opposite of him, raising the importance of this election’s results. There have been concerns that the GD party may be drifting from EU accession and NATO military alliance deals for Georgia and leaning towards going into active retaliation with Russia. This has sparked quite an uproar for the more than five political parties because it is the main issue that they come together on. The fears stem from a concern that the GD party may embrace Russian President Vladimir Putin and anti-Europeanism. 

  This will not only affect the internal functionality of Georgia, but the way they interact with other states on a global scale. Whether or not they will continue to maintain a pro-Western relationship through policy will affect the future of Georgia’s state. Overall, there is a fear that Georgia may be entering a period of democratic backsliding due to the autocratic policies and standards that the GD party has pushed for and displayed support for. 

Uruguay

On Oct. 27, Ururguyans will take to the polls to vote on their next president, all the seats in the upper and lower houses of Parliament, and notably a potential referendum that would change the pension system. There are two parties in the running: left-center Broad Front coalition, and incumbent National Party. If there is not a candidate with majority votes above 50%, there will be a runoff on Nov. 24. Along with the refresh of the executive and judicial branches, the two referendum questions Uruguyans will vote on are on a constitutional ban on night time police home raids and a pension reform for reverting the retirement age. 

Looking at potential poll predictions, under most options for presidential and parliamentary results, the polls display the Broad Front (FA) party taking a majority of the votes. For the referendum predictions, the voter predictions may lie in favor of allowing police home raids and being against lowering the retirement age for pension benefits. These predictions have been made with AS/COA compiling poll election views on the candidates and concerns citizens have for their vote this week. There are great chances of the presidential candidate choice continuing into November for a runoff vote, but it will be a result to watch considering the divide of voters after the impact COVID-19 imposed on the state of Uruguay and their citizens. 

Recap

Lithuania

Lithuania’s first round of elections for the Seimas, Lithuania’s unicameral parliament, took place on Oct. 13, 2024 with the second round scheduled for Oct. 27. The 141 member body consists of 71 direct mandates, to be voted on in the second round, and 70 seats to be divided up proportional to how each party fared in the first round. In the first round the opposition Social Democrats came out on top, confirming earlier projections. Voters seemed to be especially concerned with the rising cost of living and the threat to security posed by Russia, whose enclave Kaliningrad shares a direct border with the Baltic state. The Social Democrats, under the leadership of Vilija Blinkeviciute, have announced that they seek to form a coalition with other left wing parties in order to oust the current conservative government under prime minister Ingrida Simonyte. A new right wing populist party, called the Dawn of Nemunas, participated for the first time in the election and received 15% of the vote.

Both Turkey and the United States boast republic and democratic government systems. While both countries offer the constitutional right for citizens to vote, there is a large disparity when it comes to the number of people who actively participate in elections, Turkey often has an exponentially higher turnout rate, with 80% of its population voting in mayoral elections. Where does the United States fall short when it comes to democratic participation and what lessons can be learned from a country with such a high turnout?

There has been an abundance of research into the factors contributing to the lack of attendance at the polls in the U.S. A significant finding is there are certain groups which are historically underrepresented each election cycle. Voter turnout is historically lower among college students, especially in the United States (Neimi and Hanmer). For example, Athens-Clarke County, the home city of the University of Georgia (UGA), has a large proportion of college students. In 2021, UGA students comprised 30% of the Athens-Clarke County population (Athens-Clarke County Unified Government). During the most recent Presidential Preference Primary in March 2024, participation among college students was dismal with Clarke County reportin on only 11% turnout  (The Red & Black). This phenomenon contributes to an overall low level of political efficacy both in Athens-Clarke County and across the country. Two barriers thatmay hinder college students from exercising their right to vote are residency and identification requirements. Legal ambiguities about residency requirements have led to confusion among students and voting officials. This has resulted in inconsistencies in procedures for registration across the U.S. Some districts require identification with a current address or a utility bill, both of which are nearly impossible to produce while living in student housing (Hanmer and Jackson). 

In contrast, Turkey has not experienced the same low turnout rate for college-aged citizens. In the 2015 elections, 18-30 year olds made up around 30% of the electorate, while the United States typically experiences . Kayaoğlu  (2016) finds that higher levels of youth education greatly contributes to Turkey’s large voter turnout. Turkey also excels in voter mobilization, as inaccessible polling places are made attainable through intrinsic interpersonal compassion, with citizens carrying their peers with disabilities to vote. 

Another factor that contributes greatly to the low turnout rate in the U.S. is the presence of systemic barriers that disproportionately affect BIPOC communities. The gap between the voting rates of white and non-white eligible voters has grown from 6.3% in 2020 to 8.6% in 2022 (Brennan Center). The factors perpetuating this gap include the passage of restrictive voting bills in recent years across the country, including the Georgia S.B. 202, which prevents “line relief” and imposes training requirements for poll watchers and stricter voter ID requirements for voters (GPB). One reason the impact of voting laws is disproportionate is the lack of language access for voters with low English proficiency, who may be unable to complete a ballot application correctly and completely. Emly Previti, PBS writes that in 2020, Pennsylvania housed over 110,000 people eligible to vote but had limited English proficiency (WHYY PBS). Similarly, this population may be more likely to have their ballots rejected because of their low English proficiency or have trouble registering to vote initially. Together, all of these barriers lead to greater political discouragement and perpetuate a cycle of political apathy among BIPOC communities. 

Turkey’s high level of political participation is somewhat of an anomaly, as democracy prevails in the face of authoritarianism. Currently, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has consistently held power, and even still, citizens support the opposing party – the Republican People’s Party – despite the odds being against them. Since coming into power in 2002, the AKP has held and won parliamentary elections to keep its officials in power. The AKP’s values are closely intertwined with religion, often prevalent through its political decisions (Yeşlida). Turkey’s democratic system, in this way, is far from perfect. Its citizens have experienced intimidation at polling places and government delegitimization of opposing parties. Despite these challenges, Turkish voters continue to identify with and turn out for opposing parties. 

One outstanding difference between Turkey and the United States is that Turkish citizens experience fewer voting barriers, and their citizens accept the results of democratic elections (Alliance for Securing Democracy). The resulting controversy from the 2022 United States elections is something Turkish citizens haven’t experienced and is a clear indicator of the relative democratic health of both countries. While Turkey hasn’t been immune to political turmoil, its elections have remained free in ballot applications, polling place availability, and language access. When examining Turkish voter participation in the 2011 parliamentary election, Akarca and Tansel found that more names on the ballot reduced voter turnout, and Turkey’s millennial population voted at significantly higher levels than the millennial population of Western countries like the United States. They also found that voters who find the parties on the ballot difficult to identify with are much less likely to vote. One could argue that this may be the case in the United States. Overall, Turkey’s citizens may feel a great level of identification with the parties on the ballot and not experience the same gap in the millennial voter population as the United States.  

So, what lessons can be learned from proven practices in Turkey to increase voter turnout in the US? One major takeaway is that there must be more legislation to remove long-standing barriers to participating in our democratic system. This could be done by offering applications and voting information in multiple languages and increasing the number of polling places in communities with disproportionate access. Furthermore, creating straightforward registration and absentee voting processes consistent across the country is essential. 

The right and ability to vote is paramount to civil liberties in any country, and its diminishment threatens the future of democratic systems. Turkey’s astonishing election turnout offers some insight into how to increase participation in the United States. Increasing accessibility for each citizen and standardized election procedures are paramount to bringing voters out to the polls.

Photo Credit: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/15/turkeys-election-likely-heading-to-run-off-erdogan-has-the-edge

Edition 8: April 22-28

Upcoming

North Macedonia

North Macedonia will be holding their first round presidential election on April 24. There are seven candidates running for the position, but the most notable are Stevo Pendarovski, the incumbent president vying for a second term, and Gordana Siljanovska Davkova, who lost the 2019 presidential election to Pendarovski. The other candidates span a wide range of political ideologies, including two ethnically Albanian candidates, a significant minority in North Macedonia.

The major issues at stake are membership to the European Union, corruption, and fighting crime. North Macedonia has been a candidate to join the EU since 2005, previously barred by Greece due to a controversy over the country’s name. Now, membership is being blocked by Bulgaria, who demands that a Bulgarian minority must be recognized in North Macedonia’s constitution. Pendarovski’s official position is that European integration is necessary for North Macedonia’s future, and he publicly supports the constitutional change. Siljanovska Davkova is more euroskeptical, calling for heavy EU reform prior to joining, while maintaining public neutrality on the constitutional changes. 

The president of North Macedonia is a largely ceremonial role, only responsible for appointing judges to the nation’s constitutional and supreme courts. An eventual victory by Pendarovski could see North Macedonia move closer towards EU membership, strengthening the bloc’s presence in eastern Europe. With there being a large number of candidates, the election is almost certain to require a runoff, which will be held on May 8, the same day as North Macedonia’s parliamentary elections. 

Recaps

Croatia

Thursday, April 18th, Andrej Plencovíc came forth to announce that the HDZ had won the largest number of seats in parliament, 60, and would soon start negotiating with smaller parties for a coalition group. The Social Democratic Party (SDP) came short with 42 seats, a disappointing loss for the group in the context of Milancovíc’s efforts to be the prime minister candidate. There was an increased voter turnout by almost 15% compared to the last election in 2020. The SDP official representative, Pedja Grbin, expressed disappointment for the loss on Wednesday.

Since there is no set coalition, Croatia can look forward to a period of uncertainty for the foreseeable future. The competing far-right party, Homeland Movement, won 14 seats, potentially taking away seats that may have made this election more competitive between the HDZ and SDP. They have been clear in their indecisive nature when it comes to joining in coalition with either of the two larger parties, so we can expect the HDZ to take the next few months to form their coalition government that will be in power for the next four years. 

Ecuador

The night of the 21st, the Ecuadoran electoral authority declared an early victory, despite only 20% of votes being counted, claiming that the pattern of results was irreversible. President Daniel Noboa took to X that Sunday evening to rejoice in the early victory of the referendum results. There was overwhelming approval for the nine referendum questions concerning tightening security, but this was not true for the remaining two concerning the economy. This will now entail Noboa releasing the army to fight gangs, which will lessen the obstacles to extradite accused criminals—raising humanitarian concerns—and lengthen the sentences for detained drug traffickers. 

It’s important to note that these proposals go against the Ecuadorian Constitution, so it will require a final vote to approve the changes, and they would then be codified in the official registry. There is no timeline present for when this will happen. Analysts believe if Noboa doesn’t quickly take action with the approved referendum polls, the momentum and approval he’s accumulated will dilute. He has taken a similar model of combatting state violence to President Nayib Bukele, which may ensure his reelection next year.

Maldives

The Maldives held parliamentary elections on April 21. Although results are still preliminary, President Mohamed Muizzu’s party, the People’s National Congress, swept the elections, winning over 70 seats of the 93-seat People’s Majlis. The Maldivian Democratic Party, which has dominated Maldivian politics for most of this century, lost nearly 50 seats. The MDP has been in disarray since losing the 2023 presidential election to Muizzu. 

Muizzu’s presidency has been defined by his relationship with China. Muizzu reversed many pro-Indian policies, including asking Indian security forces to leave the Maldives, and he has expressed interest in furthering investment from China through the Belt and Road Initiative. This election contributes to the widening geopolitical struggle between India and China, which has been the key issue in many 2024 Indo-Pacific elections, including the Maldives and India.

Photo Credit: https://pixabay.com/photos/macedonia-lake-church-religious-1002174/

Edition 7: April 15-21

Upcoming

India

On Friday, April 19th, all 543 seats of the Lok Sabha parliament will begin statewide elections, which will elect the next prime minister. This election will bring over 900 million people to the polls, expected to be the most expensive in Indian history as millions of polling stations will be transported across the country. The election will take place over seven weeks, with the results being finalized on June 4th. 

The current prime minister, Narendra Modi, was elected in 2014 and won his 2019 reelection by a landslide with his development and anti-corruption campaigns. Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party have used Hindu nationalism to gain large public support in the predominantly Hindu northern states. The main rival to the BJP is the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, which is predominantly made up of the Indian National Congress, with the key goal of denying Modi a third term. The INC has claimed that the BJP attempted to suppress them, as their bank accounts were frozen last month. 

The BJP is attempting to increase its support in southern India during this election cycle as it continues to grow its nationalistic rhetoric. Modi’s “Hindu-first” policies, such as renaming Muslim-named cities, demolishing Islamic monuments, and rewriting history books, have left Muslim Indians feeling like second class citizens. Under Modi’s government, civil liberties, such as the right to protest and freedom of speech, have been threatened. 

Despite these issues of civil liberties, Modi’s BJP will likely maintain their majority, securing him a third term as prime minister. Modi is predicted to continue his foreign policy efforts of asserting India as a geopolitical competitor to the United States and China by better supporting the Pacific Island nations and the Indian Ocean countries. Domestically, Modi will likely continue to empower the Hindu majority and increase manufacturing as India has emerged as a direct competitor to China in the international economic production sector. 

Ecuador

This upcoming Sunday, April 21st, Ecuadorians will have the opportunity to participate in a vote on constitutional changes proposed by President Daniel Noboa of Acción Democrática Nacional. These changes result from the newly elected President’s efforts to expand the country’s police and military power in an effort to dismantle gang groups he designates as terrorists. This referendum comes as an attempt to reform the constitution in an era where a growing conflict is emerging between government forces and criminal gangs. Two large gangs -the Choleros and the Lobos- collaborate with neighboring gangs in Mexico and Colombia for drug trafficking supply activities. They have been escalating their violent crimes as a result of a territory war, including decapitations, dismemberments, and attacks on journalists and politicians. There has been a large dissatisfaction with the enjoyment of social rights, leading to a mass movement of Ecuadorians towards the North. 

In January 2024, President Noboa began mobilizing his efforts to strengthen security measures, and he declared a state of emergency later in the month due to a gang-related crime. A turning point for Noboa’s efforts came when a gunman entered a TV station and murdered a presidential candidate in January. The 11 topics that the citizens of Ecuador will vote on Sunday involve manners such as stricter gun laws in areas surrounding prisons and longer prison sentencing for organized crime offenses. The wake of the coronavirus is said to be a contributing factor to the rise of violent crimes committed, even within the prisons. Noboa is fighting for the intervention of armed forces against organized crime and the creation of a stronger justice system resulting in fair prison convictions. President Noboa’s efforts with this referendum allow the citizens of Ecuador to impose longer prison sentences for more serious crimes, such as homicide and arms trafficking. If the voter turnout is in favor of Noboa’s propositions, there will be a large movement of militarization in Ecuador to eradicate all organized crime groups from the state and allow for economic and social growth. 

Croatia

This Wednesday, April 17th, all 151 Parliamentary seats in Croatia will be open, and with the majority or coalition of other parties, the next prime minister will be appointed. President Zoran Milanović announced the election shortly before declaring his candidacy for the position as a member of the Social Democratic Party. Despite it being unlawful for an acting president to be elected as prime minister, Milanović has dismissed this concern due to suspected corruption from current Prime Minister Andrej Plenković of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ). The HDZ has ruled 26 of 32 years since Croatia separated from former Yugoslavia, beginning as an ethno-nationalist Croatian party and evolving into a center-right wing Pro-European party. 

The HDZ has been swamped with corruption scandals, which has produced concerns from left and right-wing groups. Milancović has voiced the concern of many left and right-wing groups on HDZ, and Plencović appointed Ivan Turdić as attorney general despite his ties to corrupt figures. This raises many concerns for the potential reelection of Plencović, because the prime minister is responsible for the national agenda and appoints Cabinet members. This year has been dubbed as a super-election year, with the presidential elections planned for the latter part of 2024. Although presidential powers are mainly ceremonial, they allow propositions for amendments and calls to parliament. The parliamentary seats that are open for election this week will be voted in by a majority, or coalition of other parties, to appoint the next prime minister. Polls reveal that the HDZ may take the majority of votes, but it is unclear what parties and candidates smaller groups will lean to support. If the rivaling far-right party, the Homeland Movement, gains support from left and center groups, it may impact the chances of the HDZ and Social Democrats securing the seat.

Solomon Islands

Solomon Islanders will soon head to the polls to elect the 50 members of the national legislature. Elections were originally slated for 2023, but Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare delayed them until 2024, raising red flags within the international community. The Solomon Islands have a very weak party system, with parties being created and dissolved frequently between elections and many candidates running as independents. As a result, politicians must form coalitions to govern, with Sogavare leading the current ruling coalition and Matthew Wale leading the opposition coalition, the Coalition for Accountability Reform and Empowerment (CARE).

These elections are key to determining the foreign policy direction of the Solomon Islands. Under Sogavare’s rule, the Solomon Islands withdrew its recognition of Taiwan and signed a security pact with the People’s Republic of China, straining relations with the United States. Several candidates are campaigning to end the security pact with China, with some favoring closer ties with Australia and New Zealand, and others favoring strengthening relations with the US. The US has expressed concerns of increased cooperation between the Chinese military and police in the Solomon Islands, believing that this could lead to the establishment of a Chinese military base on the islands. 

Overall, these elections are vital for the people of the Solomon Islands to express their views on the foreign policy direction of the country. The elections will also be a major test to the government’s ability to handle political change, regional divide, and corruption.

The Maldives

The Maldives will be holding legislative elections for their parliament, the Maldivian People’s Council. Currently, the Maldivian Democratic Party holds 65 out of 87 seats, but this is likely to decrease dramatically, as the party has been increasingly fractured since losing the 2023 presidential election. That election, which saw Mohamed Muizzu become president, cemented the People’s National Congress as a strong contender for these 2024 legislative elections. Muizzu’s presidency has seen a foreign policy shift towards China and away from India, with Muizzu asking all Indian soldiers to leave the Maldives. 

This election, similar to that of the Solomon Islands, is an important time for the electorate to voice their opinions on foreign policy. The Pacific/Indian Ocean region is torn between China, the United States, and India, who all are vying for geopolitical influence in smaller island nations. Politicians in the Maldives are split on these regional allegiances, all while trying to fight the effects of climate change, which has already had perilous effects on the nation. 

Recap

South Korea

South Korea held its legislative elections on April 10, resulting in a crushing defeat of incumbent-president Yoon Suk Yeol’s People Power Party. The PPP, which narrowly won the 2022 presidential election while holding a minority in the National Assembly, lost six seats, while the main opposition parties, the Democratic Party and the Rebuilding Korea Party, gained 19 and 11 seats, respectively. These parties campaigned against Yoon’s economic policies as president, which they claim have caused massive rises in food prices, using green onions as an electoral symbol.

Yoon is now left with an even more hostile legislature for his last three years as president, leaving him little room to carry out any domestic policies included in his campaign. He does still maintain power over foreign policy, which he has used to continue strengthening security deals with the United States and Japan.

Photo Credit: https://apnews.com/article/india-election-modi-bjp-democracy-8998fe6aba5fa26debc0f82c4e2ccf69

When the Apartheid regime in South Africa began to crumble in the 1990s, the world became hopeful for a peaceful, democratic transition and for many years it looked to be a success. In 1994, South Africa elected Nelson Mandela as president, and Mandela’s African National Congress entered into power. The ANC had been instrumental in pushing for reform since the 1960s while Mandela was in prison for over thirty years. Its first years in government were full of activism and determination to undo the damage that the Apartheid regime had done to black South Africans. The ANC government worked to racially integrate all sectors of life, to encourage voter participation, and to increase confidence in the government. The late 1990s saw South Africa prosper and quickly grow into one of Africa’s strongest economies. This success culminated in the awarding of the 2010 FIFA World Cup to South Africa in 2004. The Apartheid regime had brought global criticism and sanctions on South Africa and the hosting of the World Cup was the ANC’s way to show the world that progress and massive political change was possible for Africa. 

While the World Cup gave the world a renewed vision of South Africa and Africa as a whole, the situation in South Africa was not as bright as it seemed. As early as 1998, warning flags were already raised regarding South Africa’s energy infrastructure. The country’s power grid was largely constructed to support the white minority under the Apartheid regime, and, due to South Africa’s quickly growing population, the grid reached maximum capacity in 2007. 

Despite nine years of warning, the ANC-led government did not consider energy infrastructure a priority, leaving the state-owned energy company, Eskom, to fend for itself. Once the ANC began trying to build new power stations, the projects were deeply flawed, with overspending, delays and corruption allowing little progress. Under President Jacob Zuma, infrastructure contracts and leadership positions were handed out to friends, political allies, and prominent businessmen, causing further losses and setbacks. At one point, it was estimated that Eskom was losing $50 million every month due to theft. Ever since, the South African people have suffered the consequences of this corruption through “load shedding,” or planned energy blackouts designed to conserve power, often lasting for multiple hours per day.

 Load shedding has continued to increase under the current president, Cyril Ramaphosa, as it becomes clear that the ANC has become unable to manage South Africa’s energy sector. Now water infrastructure is beginning to fail. South Africans are facing water shortages, dubbed “water shedding,” at unprecedented levels, leading to energy and water security being a top concern for South Africans (Afrobarometer). Despite these failings and increasing corruption, the ANC continues to hold a strong grip on South African politics, as it repeatedly touts its role in ending Apartheid. This lack of a political party transition has raised questions about South Africa’s democratic strength.

Today, energy, water and governance crises have brought South Africa to a crossroads. The South African people overwhelmingly view the country as moving in the wrong direction, which comes after decades of ANC rule. Voters are becoming increasingly apathetic towards, and mistrustful of the government, and are looking for leaders that will solve South Africa’s extensive problems. On May 29, 2024, voters will go to the polls in the country’s general elections. While the ANC will likely retain its plurality, its vote share is projected to dip below 50% for the first time in South Africa’s modern democratic history, forcing the once overwhelmingly popular party to rule through a coalition (Wits). The ANC hopes to win back support before the election by finally making progress on the energy crisis, namely by allowing private companies to produce power to be distributed through Eskom’s networks. This policy shift could help both increase power supply and move towards renewable energy sources.

South Africa has had a turbulent 30 years of democracy. The ANC’s rule began in 1994 full of hope and progress, winning decisively in the 1990s and early 2000s. The party however, has fallen into mismanagement and corruption, allowing little progress to be made in South Africa over the past decade. The 2024 elections could end the ANC’s one-party rule, opening the country up to alternative viewpoints to address South Africa’s systemic problems.

Photo Credit: https://pixabay.com/photos/helicopter-ride-flight-exciting-1218974/

On February 25th, Belarus conducted its first elections since 2020, leading to mass protests and a crackdown on public dissent. These elections allowed Belarusians to select local government and parliament representatives. Though the elections didn’t involve the election of a president this year, as they had in 2020, they highlighted the staunch reality of what future elections may look like in the state. For example, polls were opened five days before election day to allow for earlier voting, but boxes were unprotected, a move which many claim allowed for the manipulation of results. Additionally, only candidates in parties with approval from the government were allowed to register for the election. In fact, only four parties actually had their candidates listed on the ballot, meaning Belarusians had no real choice of opposition.  Instead, they were forced to continue supporting one man: President Alexander Lukashenko.

Often called “Europe’s last dictator,” Lukashenko has been in power since 1994. A former director of a Soviet collective farm, he rose to prominence as a populist leader, marketing himself as a father of Belarus. In order to stay in power, he has resorted to rigging elections. During this year’s election season, he announced his intent to run for reelection in 2025, marking his first time on the ballot since 2020’s domestic conflict. This year’s parliamentary election was seen as a practice run for Lukashenko’s own race next year, suggesting a continued suppression of opposition candidates and poll boxes vulnerable to manipulation. However, though many Belarusians were frustrated with how it was conducted, this election did not prompt the same domestic outrage seen in 2020. 

The 2020 election led to a domestic crisis in Belarus, with mass protests amounting to upwards of 100,000 people in the capital city of Minsk. In the weeks leading up to the election, Svetlana Tikhanovskay, the lead opposition candidate, traveled the country to garner support among those frustrated with the government. She did this in the absence of her husband, who was set to run, as he was jailed prior to the election. As voters took to the polls, an internet blackout took place. Exit polls, produced by the government, appeared to match the official results, declaring Lukashenko the winner. However, Tikhanovskaya and the opposition claimed that when results were properly documented, she received 60 to 70 percent of the vote. Taking to the streets, thousands demanded democratic leadership and economic reform in the country. In response, the government cracked down on domestic dissent, jailing many on the street and using force.

On March 15th, the United Nations Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner published its report analyzing the 2020 response to the 2020 election. The report found that the actions taken in Belarus could possibly constitute the crime against humanity of prosecution. In its 23 pages, the report highlights a complete lack of due process protections for those accused, citing a difficulty accessing lawyers and unnecessary delays in trial. Those arrested during protest were also subjected to torture, sexual violence, and inhumane methods of interrogation and detention. Additionally, many arrests were made arbitrarily, with evidence falsified. It is in the background of this that the elections of 2025 will take place, and this is concerning to many Belarusians. 

Alisa Scherbakova, a current doctoral candidate at the University of Georgia and citizen of Belarus, left the country in 2016 and has been living in the United States since. She began protesting with her family when she was seven, and continued to do so until she left. In conversation, she expressed many concerns about the future of Belarus, highlighting the sense of despair many Belarusians feel towards the future of their nation. When asked if Belarusians were discouraged from participating by the government’s response, Scherbakova explained that “it can’t get worse than it already is.” She does not believe that people will protest in the upcoming election, citing a sense of hopelessness to make any meaningful changes. With Lukashenko set to run again, the elections of 2025 are certain to be held under a strict lockdown. For Russia, this secures continued support from a reliable ally, which has been helpful throughout the war on Ukraine. While Lukashenko will likely maintain his hold on the presidential office, there may be a way forward for Belarus if they choose to become more democratic. The European Union has pledged 3 billion dollars towards helping ensure a democratic transition in Belarus, if change is enacted. However, as Scherbakova sees it, Belarus has pushed out an entire generation of young people, who leave to ensure their children have better futures. To her, it is hard to imagine Belarus changing, when those passionately supporting the opposition leave and dissent continues to be suppressed.

Photo Credit: https://www.flickr.com/photos/oscepa/34931909983

The United States has not seen a third-party candidate with significant impact since Ross Perot in 1992. Yet, polling shows a steady increase in Americans willing to vote for a third-party candidate, with recent data showing upwards of 63%. While this sentiment has grown throughout the voter base, the landscape for national elections has become a duopoly between the Republicans and Democrats, who have changed the rules. They’ve done this in two ways: first, by forcing independent candidates to gather signatures to “qualify” to get on the ballot in the various states. This can range from a couple of thousand to hundreds of thousands. A project that only needed a couple of thousand signatures could most likely do it only using volunteers. But RFK Jr.’s campaign estimates that they will need roughly a million signatures to get on all the ballots of all 50 states, costing them upwards of 15 million dollars. So far, the campaign reports it has enough signatures to appear on the presidential ballot in Hawaii, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Utah, and is on track to gain enough signatures for Kennedy to appear on the ballot in Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, and Michigan. The way they are gaining these signatures is by hiring signature collectors. These individuals pose as volunteers to gather signatures from eligible voters, but in fact, are being hired by super PACs and election committees to gather artificial support for candidates. UGA has even seen some of these signature collectors on campus.

The second issue that RFK is dealing with is states barring him entirely. The Kennedy campaign has sued Utah and Idaho over their ballot access rules and is likely to file lawsuits in six other states. However, for RFK to make a real impact, he doesn’t need to get on the ballot in all 50 states. Getting on the ballot in just 3 or 4 of the seven swing states could drastically change the overall election results.

“If you can’t beat them, join them.” This wasn’t the approach that RFK took as he initially ran as a Democrat and dropped out, but it was the approach of Dean Phillips, a Democrat running against incumbent and current President Joseph Biden. Phillips, who recently suspended his campaign, ran into alternative barriers while trying to run within the two-party system. Though Phillips announced his candidacy late in October before the primary season, he was left off the ballot in several key states, including Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida.

Phillips was also met with other challenges, which included his main opponent Joe Biden not filing for the New Hampshire primary and instead opting to be an in-write candidate. It was the first time an incumbent chose not to file in the first primary election. 

This choice was made following Joe Biden’s finish in 5th place in the New Hampshire primary voting in 2020, not winning a single municipality. As a result, the DNC officially filed for Biden in South Carolina first. South Carolina gave Mr. Biden his first 2020 primary win and revived his White House run.  The silence and dismissiveness of Phillips’ efforts to compete in New Hampshire forced the hand of the officials, stating that it was a meaningless primary. This incident represents a possibly scary future, where presidential candidates are picked not from the population but from Super PACs with the most money or party elites.

The ballot access laws for the president are much more lenient than for other offices as state legislators place more personal importance on legislative rather than presidential elections. However, for former president Donald Trump, the barriers are unprecedented for a sitting president seeking re-election. At least two states, Colorado and Maine, have already barred the former president from appearing on their ballots due to his actions seeking to overturn the 2020 election results and his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection. A further 11 states have filed litigation seeking to exclude Mr. Trump as well, in a historically rigid application of ballot access laws. Though he sits charged with 91 felonies, he has not been convicted of a criminal offense. 

Logically, it is very damning to be charged with 91 felonies. However, in America, students are taught that one is innocent until proven guilty, and political pressures should not influence who can and cannot sit on the balance. 

“It’s an unconstitutional effort to disenfranchise millions of Americans who want to vote for President Trump,” said campaign spokesman Steven Cheung. “We’ll fight this every step of the way.” But these obstacles do not come cheap. The Trump campaign has already racked up over $25 million in legal fees battling the ballot exclusions, a financial drain on resources that could significantly hamper efforts in critical swing states. Additionally, Trump also faces $500 million in civil liabilities that will damage not only his image but also his financial ability to campaign through November.

These challenges come in all different shapes and sizes, yet they all raise the same question: Is the line so clear that we still have fair elections guaranteed to us as Americans? And with these candidates facing such challenges, what needs to be done to ensure elections become more fair in the future?

Photo Credit: https://www.thenewworldreport.com/2024-elections-digital-threats-forecast/.

Edition 6: April 6-14

Upcoming

South Korea

South Korea’s April 10 legislative elections could be a turning point for the remaining three years of President Yoon Sun Yeol’s term. Yoon’s People Power Party will face off against opposition leader Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party, which currently dominates the National Assembly. A sizable third group, the Rebuilding Korea Party, is running in addition to other smaller parties. Rebuilding Korea is led by Cho Kuk, a scandal-ridden former Minister of Justice who has been charged with several counts of fraud and corruption. The party’s ideology is close to that of the Democratic Party, although its main focus is ending the “prosecutorial dictatorship” that Cho claims South Korea has become during Yoon’s presidency.

South Korea’s elections will determine all 300 seats of the National Assembly. Of these, 254 seats are elected using first-past-the-post voting as constituency seats. The other 46 seats are elected using proportional, party-list voting. This mixed system gives voters the ability to vote for their preferred candidate, as well as for their preferred party, which may not always be the same. Over 20% of South Koreans have expressed interest in third parties, leading to the rise in parties like Rebuilding Korea to utilize the proportional representation system to make nation-wide gains.

Yoon has suffered from very low approval ratings and has faced sharp criticism for South Korea’s quickly rising cost of living and creating an increasingly hostile relationship with North Korea. Conservatives argue that if the more liberal Democratic Party takes power, they will be softer on North Korea, damaging South Korean sovereignty. Yoon has spent the first two years of his presidential term working with an opposition-led National Assembly, and more losses in this election could take away any chance of Yoon having a productive final three years in office. 

Recaps

Kuwait

Kuwait’s legislative election has yielded very few changes, with opposition candidates maintaining their majority of 29 out of 50 seats in the parliament. In Kuwait, political parties are illegal, leaving legislators to loosely identify with coalitions and their allegiance to the emir, or head of state. This new parliament will have the task of approving the emir’s successor and monitoring economic reform policies. 

Emir Mishal al-Ahmad al-Sabah dissolved parliament in February 2024, marking the third time that the legislature had been dissolved in three years, leaving many questions about Kuwait’s democracy. These elections saw opposition candidates retain the same majority that they had prior to the election, strengthening their democratic mandate to rule and hopefully concluding Kuwait’s ongoing legislative crisis. 

Slovakia

Peter Pellegrini, an ally to pro-Russian Prime Minister Robert Fico, has won Slovakia’s presidential run-off election with 53.26% of the vote, beating pro-Western Ivan Corčok. Pellegrini’s election paves the way for Fico’s parliament to take a more extreme approach towards issues such as aid to Ukraine and the strength of rule of law. Previously, moderate incumbent President Zuzana Čaputová acted as a counterbalance to Fico’s extreme policies. The Slovak president does not have many powers, although they can veto laws and appoint constitutional court judges, giving them the significant ability to check the power of the parliament. 

After winning, Pellegrini has said that nothing will radically change in Slovakia, and they will remain strong allies in both the European Union and NATO. This election continues the trend of eastern European governments becoming increasingly extreme and anti-Western, along with Bulgaria, Hungary and Poland.

Photo Credit: https://www.csis.org/analysis/south-koreas-2024-general-election-results-and-implications

The participation of college students in the democratic process is imperative. Not only will the local representatives they elect affect their lives while attending college, but those same officials will likely influence the first stages of their adult life after higher education as well. Students attending colleges in-state are free to vote for candidates who most directly affect their campus communities, but out-of-state students do not always have this luxury. In the state of Georgia, out-of-state students have the option to either stay registered to vote in their home state or register to vote in Georgia using their public college ID. This provides these students a opportunity to receive proper democratic representation in the local and state governments. There are several obstacles, however, that out-of-state students in Georgia must overcome to achieve this representation. Out-of-state students who attend college in Georgia, including University of Georgia students, have a harder time achieving proper democratic representation than in-state students because of the issues they face with voter registration, such as inadequate civic education, confusing laws, and lack of motivation.

Most Georgia college students have a chance to vote for officials representing their campus communities but insufficient civic education leads to ignorance of this opportunity. Out-of-state students may not realize they are able to change where they are registered, which is a problem perpetuated by the University of Georgia’s civic engagement website page. On this page, it states that one can use an ID from a public Georgia university to vote, but it never explicitly mentions that this option works for out-of-state students who wish to change where they are registered. Buried amongst facts about valid Georgia driver licenses, it is easy for students to misunderstand this option as only being for in-state students. The only section of the page that refers to registering out-of-state takes the user to a separate, more confusing page of Democracy Works Elections Data. This page also does not provide any specific information on how to register, opting to only inform the reader of how the organization’s other website pages can help without any hyperlinks or directions. This lack of knowledge may be a factor in why few out-of-state students are registered in their campus state. In a study conducted by Tufts University, researchers found that 23% of out-of-state students are registered to vote in Georgia. With so few out-of-state students registered and no clear instruction on how to register in one’s campus state, out-of-state students in Georgia face the hindrance of learning they can change their registration location to begin with.

Beyond the University of Georgia, out-of-state students who attend private colleges in Georgia are not even allowed to register to vote in the state. According to the Secretary of State’s Georgia Voter Identification Requirements, only a student ID from a public Georgia college or university is valid due to a 2006 voter ID law. This issue not only denies out-of-state students at Georgia private colleges the right to democratic representation, but it specifically burdens out-of-state students of color. Seven out of 10 historical black colleges and universities in Georgia are private, meaning many Black out-of-state students are disenfranchised at the polls. Even out-of-state students at other private popular schools, such as Emory or Mercer University, face this problem. This oversight on valid voting IDs results in out-of-state students having to make the unfair decision to sacrifice their right to democratic representation in exchange for a higher education in Georgia. 

On a psychological level, out-of-state students tend to feel less of an incentive to register. The aforementioned Tufts University study found that out-of-state students are simply less motivated to vote. This could be for a number of reasons. Some students may not want to go through the work of registering again when they are already registered in their home state. Some may feel their vote is not needed in their campus state, especially if that state tends to be led by one political party. On the flip side, if their home state is a battleground state in elections, they may decide it is more important to stay registered there, even if it means giving up their elective power in their campus state. Georgia’s current political climate makes this situation more complex. Historically, Georgia has tended to lean Republican for both state and national elections. Out-of-state votes are more crucial than ever in influencing Georgia’s elections, but that puts out-of-state students in the tough position of deciding in which state they want their vote to matter. Out-of-state students spend around eight months out of the year living under their campus state’s government. Yet, many of those students’ electoral power to choose candidates that best represent their wants and values is deprived, either through deficient civic knowledge, tangible ID requirements or mental obstacles. With one of the most crucial election periods on the horizon, this must change. In the past, movements such as VoteRiders have sent knowledgeable activists to college campuses in Georgia to help students with registration. Out-of-state students especially should seek out these volunteers if they come to campus. The University of Georgia must also take on some responsibility and do a better job of making it clear to out-of-state students that they can register to vote in the state and provide resources to help them do so. If you are an in-state student who has registered before, offer to help an out-of-state peer with the process. They deserve democratic representation just as much as in-state students.

Photo Credit: https://www.pexels.com/photo/stickers-with-i-voted-inscription-and-flag-of-usa-1550339/

“Bukele! Bukele! Bukele!”, these are the chants San Salvador, El Salvador heard on the night of the presidential election, February 9th, in support of incumbent candidate President Nayib Bukele from the Nuevas Ideas party. Despite it being unconstitutional, The Supreme Court’s Constitutional Chamber displayed public support for Bukele’s reelection by telling the Supreme Electoral Tribunal to allow a second term for President Bukele.  (Aleman, 2021). A majority of the seats in the chamber are held by legislators of Nuevas Ideas, leaving little power to those in alternative power, such as the Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) and the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN). ARENA is a center/right-wing political party and the FMLN is an insurgent left-wing political party that emerged at the end of the civil war in 1992. This is due to Bukele’s early efforts in his political uprising to remove members of opposing parties so that Nuevas Ideas would be the primary party in the state. 

Dating back to 2019, ARENA and FMLN faced a harsh defeat from Nuevas Ideas, taking the majority of municipal seats because of the lack of patience from the people of El Salvador with these previous two main parties. A ruling explanation of why these parties have fallen from popularity is from the years of corruption and scandals with their lack of controlling crime. Enter Nuevas Ideas, with an iron fist against crime and poverty amongst the struggling citizens- the masses of Bukele supporters were not going to let their president free from their grasp. This introduces the question of how democratic this well-renowned “coolest dictator” is in the mechanisms he executes to give the people of El Salvador the alleged safe and prospering standard of life since President Bukele entered office. 

Trading in Gangs for Guns

After he declared a state of emergency in 2021, Bukele ignored calls to action against human rights violations concerning mass incarcerations, the conditions of inmates, and the lack of due process in the judiciary system. When President Bukele first enacted the state of emergency, it allowed for them to imprison over 70,000 citizens, many of whom were swept into “forced disappearances” by the authorities. Many of the 70,000 inmates were imprisoned without clarity on charges with no access to an attorney. Critics have accused Bukele of using the state of emergency as an opportunity to imprison human rights defenders and journalists who criticized his policies (Feierstein). While there have been criticisms within the borders of the state by human rights NGOs like Amnesty International, the citizens struck by the turn of living standards like safety and education investments see it as a means to an end (Quesada, 2024). While Bukele swept the streets clean of gang members who would demand extortion fees from businesses and terrorize women and men in neighborhoods, these communities also lost cherished community members that were replaced by uniformed men with guns posted on every street corner (Ellis, 2024). Although there have been many changes implemented in El Salvador that have changed the status quo for what future presidential candidates could offer the Salvadoran public, there comes harm in entrusting full hope to one single political party and presidential candidate like we’re seeing in Nuevas Ideas and President Nayib Bukele. The extremist strategies Bukele has adopted are appealing to neighboring Latin American countries. Although the Salvadoran people are satisfied with Bukele’s anti-democratic actions, the implementation of his methods may cause further instability and increased violence in Latin America (Raziel, 2023). 

Vice President Félix Ulloa commented on the system they were building with Bukele’s model, explaining how it fundamentally does not follow the democracy leftover in El Salvador from the corrupt systems, post-civil wars. Ulloa said, “To these people who say democracy is being dismantled, my answer is yes — we are not dismantling it, we are eliminating it, we are replacing it with something new.” (Kitroeff). His early declarations of victory raised suspicions of fraudulent voter counts and halted them onto Nuevas Ideas. The state of emergency may have affected the voter turnout in February, but President Bukele’s immediate instinct to embrace re-election speaks volumes to his manners and respect for the Republic of El Salvador’s integrity as a respectable government.

Photo Credit: https://apnews.com/article/el-salvador-nayib-bukele-election-8637667ca3b9f35c9ffd2baf805a9ade